Was there a “Ferguson Effect?”

Image: National Guardsmen wait in downtown Ferguson, Missouri in response to protests and riots following the death of Michael Brown.

Authors: David Pyrooz, University of Colorado - Boulder, Scott Decker, Arizona State University, Scott Wolfe, University of South Carolina, and John Shjarback, University of Texas - El Paso

Background Information: On August 20, 2014, Michael Brown was shot and killed by officer Darren Wilson of the Ferguson Police Department. As a result, there was unrest, protests, and riots through the streets of Ferguson, as well as in towns and cities across the nation in response to the ways that African-Americans have historically been treated at the hands of police officers. These protests and civic unrest led to a vigorous debate in social and political circles regarding the relationships between officers and minority communities, the militarization of police departments, and the use-of-force policies and practices of law enforcement officers across the nation.

Goal of the Study: This study revolves around whether or not there was a “Ferguson Effect” after the incidents in Ferguson, Missouri in 2014 after a young, black teenager was shot and killed by a white police officer (and other subsequent instances like this across the nation). The “Ferguson Effect” hypothesis was introduced as a result of a former FBI Director’s comments regarding the potential of de-policing and the resulting increases in crime across the nation. This analysis attempted to determine if there was, in fact, an increase in crime rates across the nation in the year post-Ferguson.

Research Methodology: Part I crime statistics were collected for the 81 largest cities across the nation for the 12 months prior to- and the 12 months post-Ferguson. The exogenous shock of the instances in Ferguson was examined using a discontinuous growth model.

Findings: In sum, there was no findings to support the hypothesis of a “Ferguson Effect”. This was indicative of violent, property, and overall crime rates across these large cities in America. However, dis-aggregated analysis showed that robbery rates, which were declining prior to the instances in Ferguson, increased in the months following Ferguson.

“What does it mean?”: The events that occurred in Ferguson, Missouri did NOT lead to an increase in crime across the country. Not only did crime rates across the board not increase, but neither did violent crime, nor property crime, when they were analyzed on their own.

Link to article: https://www-sciencedirect-com.pallas2.tcl.sc.edu/science/article/pii/S0047235216300010

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